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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-11-25T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-25T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35303/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2024-11-25T03:12Z. CME also seen to the SSE in SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is likely a small filament eruption centered around S40-45E28 that is visible in SDO AIA 304 and SDO AIA 193 starting about 2024-11-25T01:30Z. Arrival on 2024-11-29T02:15Z is categorized by a quick increase in Bt from around 8 nT->12.5 nT, with Bz initially northward, with further enhancement possible as the signature develops. Small jump in solar wind speed from about 370 km/s->400 km/s with small bumps in density and temperature also observed. This is mainly the likely arrival of CME 2024-11-25T21:24Z, with possible additional influences from CMEs 2024-11-25T03:12Z and 2024-11-25T04:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-29T02:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-28T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35308/1
Model Inputs:
2024-11-25T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=-42.0, Speed=382.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2024-11-25T12:37Z
2024-11-25T04:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-33.0, Speed=315.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-11-25T14:50Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-28T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-26T10:00Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T00:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-27T20:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T16:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-28T18:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-29T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241125_123700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 82.62 hour(s)
Difference: 6.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-11-25T15:38Z

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